How to Create Luck

My worldview shifted when I saw: luck is not just a random force.

You can manufacture favorable conditions.

Not magic. Systems, habits, orientation.

I dove into existing work. I mapped what aligns with my brain. Then I extended it. What follows is a hybrid: original insights + distilled frameworks + my next moves.

The Fallacy of Binary Luck

Lots of people think: luck is black or white.

You're either lucky. Or you aren't.

Some are born privileged. Some hit the metaphorical lottery. Others don't.

Every interview, every memoir asks:

"How much of your success is skill vs luck?"

If you trust agency, you lean "skill." If you see randomness, you lean "luck." Some pick "half and half" just to dodge nuance.

That binary model feels safe. When you lose, you can blame the dice, not your decisions.

But it's toxic. It blinds you. It stops you from doing what the lucky ones do.

Because there are people who create their own luck.

Luck Surface Area (LSA)

One concept that changed how I see this: Luck Surface Area.

Jason Roberts coined it. Sean Murphy and Patrick McKenzie made it more visible.

Think of it like catchment area in geography: how much rain you can collect depends on how wide your roof is. Luck is rain. Your life is a terrain. You can design your topology so more "luck" flows into you.

How to expand that area?

  • Do more things (try more bets)
  • Tell more people about those things (increase visibility)

Do + Tell is the core move.

You increase your chances by volume and by exposure.

Four Kinds of Luck (Reframed)

There's a classic taxonomy. James Austin introduced it in 1978. Marc Andreesen revived it. Naval & Nivi popularized it.

Original phrasing:

  1. Hope luck finds you.
  2. Hustle until something hits.
  3. Be mindful: catch what others miss.
  4. Be so exceptional opportunity hunts you.

I reinterpret them like so:

  • Accidental Luck — You don't move. You rely on birth, context, random drops.
  • Active Luck — You move. You sample widely. You try many experiments.
  • Prepared Luck — You develop sensitivity. You tune your radar for anomalies.
  • Magnetic Luck — You become a magnet. Reputation, craft, identity draw opportunities in.

They live on two axes:

  • Passive ↔ Active
  • General ↔ Individual

On one axis: how much you move or act. On the other: how niche or tailored the luck is to you.

You can passively wait in a general field. Or you can actively claim a unique niche so luck flows to you.

Habits, Strategy & Mechanics

The four kinds help you map. But I prefer a model that tells you what to do next.

I swap out the old labels:

  • Active Habits (not passive vs active)
  • Strategic Leverage (not general vs niche)

Focus shifts to behavior + choice.

Here are two core moves in my world:

1. Exploring (Habitual Action)

You don't pick perfect bets. You take many good bets.

You treat life like "many small experiments." You accept failure. You trust compounding.

Over time, these exposures lead to nontrivial returns.

Exploring is low friction. It's scalable. It's the baseline of creation.

2. Prospecting (Strategic Search)

You don't just do "lots of things" blindly. You actively search where luck is more likely.

Borrowing from mining/oil prospecting:

  • You find zones with higher odds.
  • You invest focus there.

You move towards "chance rich" domains.

Between exploring and prospecting lies your zone of control.

What looks like luck on the outside is often purposeful motion inside.

Auxiliary Moves & Supporting Frameworks

To boost your luck, layer supporting habits and tactics:

Learn in Public

Make what you do visible. Share your experiments, your failures, your learnings. Others see you. Opportunities follow. (This is part of "Tell more" in LSA)

Claim a Domain

Don't just play generically. Pick a niche. Be known there. Make yourself valuable in a narrow but meaningful space.

Copywork / Model After

Don't reinvent everything. Track those who have luck patterns. Emulate what works, reforge it in your style.

Receptivity + Sensitivity

Luck doesn't flag itself. You have to notice when outputs deviate from noise. Train your sense to detect anomalies.

Switch Scales & Horizons

Small bets today. Medium bets when you have more data. Occasionally make a bold bet when you sense alignment.

These act like gravity wells: they pull in luck when you're aligned.

A Longer Example (Hypothetical)

Imagine you're a writer.

  • You could wait for a publisher (Accidental).
  • You could write many pieces (Active).
  • You train to spot gaps others miss (Prepared).
  • Over time, your unique voice draws offers (Magnetic).

You widen surface area by:

  • Publishing short threads
  • Blogging in public
  • Talking about things others ignore
  • Tuning your perceptual radar to what's under-noticed

Then you prospect:

  • Move into trending but undercovered topics
  • Go deeper into a niche that has rising demand
  • Jump on signals others dismiss

The "magnetism" emerges: people reach out to you. Opportunities no longer require you to chase them.

Summary

Here's where I land—so far:

  • Luck is not passive.
  • You can stack conditions so that luck finds you.
  • Expand your Luck Surface Area by doing + telling.
  • Understand the four kinds: Accidental, Active, Prepared, Magnetic.
  • Operate via Active Habits + Strategic Leverage.
  • Explore broadly. Prospect purposefully.
  • Add auxiliary habits: learn in public, claim domains, be sensitive.
  • Over time, you transform from one casting a net to being one net.

Don't wait. Start now. Make yourself more lucky.